Fresh Bitcoin price highs put bulls in profit for Friday’s $1.2B BTC options expiry
With the addition of $1.2 billion in bitcoin options expiring Friday, investors are expected to see a near-term price spike on Wall Street next week that will likely bring an end to this month’s slump for BTC. However, despite having all but one week left in September with positive gains for its digital currency counterpart, much has yet to be seen when it comes to what happens when expiration hits and traders flood into positions ahead of their open interest position limits.
The “bitcoin options expiry dates 2021” is a piece of information about the BTC market. The article discusses how Friday’s high has put bulls in profit for the day, and that there are still some options left on the table for this year.
Excessive expectations accompany the formation of a new Bitcoin (BTC) all-time high. This time was no exception, with the price temporarily reaching $69,000 in the early hours of November 9.
Bitcoin 8h, we’ve had our November 9th historical correction, which seems to be mild for the time being. Naturally, I anticipate a larger correction once we reach the 84k level, followed by blast off. pic.twitter.com/cfbBkOIFEK $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
November 9, 2021 — Miles J Creative (@JohalMiles)
There’s no harm in being unduly optimistic or negative since words are just words, but there is a penalty to putting such wagers in the options markets. For instance, on November 10, a call option to purchase Bitcoin for $100,000 on December 31 is selling at BTC 0.022, or $1,460. An advance charge, often known as the premium, is paid by the investor in exchange for this right.
Following Bitcoin’s biggest monthly closing ever, analysts and pundits swiftly issued their $100,000 goals. However, whether you’re an unknown Twitter figure or a well-versed multi-million dollar crypto fund manager, experience has shown that short-term price projections seldom work.
Bitcoin price forecasts are often inaccurate.
Despite being a well-known venture capitalist, Tim Draper’s $250k price prediction for 2020 was 88 percent wrong. Even well-known bank analysts sometimes make mistakes, as seen by a Citibank FX Wire “Market Commentary” dated November 2020, which predicted a $318k peak in 2021. Still, with 50 days till the end of the year, some of those prophesies may come true, but the most are nothing more than random numbers.
Bears may be looking at regulatory barriers; for example, Singapore is the latest location to prohibit crypto derivatives exchanges. Huobi Global said on Tuesday that all Singapore-based customers’ accounts will be closed by the end of March 2022. Huobi’s local operating license was also recommended for revocation by Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission in September.
Based on open interest in call (buy) and put (sell) options, an early analysis shows a balanced scenario for the $1.3 billion options expiration on Nov. 12.
Bitcoin options open interest for November 12th. Bybt is the source.
On the surface, the $630 million call (buy) options seem to have a 12 percent lead over the $565 million put (sell) options in the weekly expiration.
The 1.12 call-to-put ratio, on the other hand, is misleading since the current rebound will almost certainly wipe out most bearish bets. If Bitcoin’s price continues over $66,000 at 8:00 a.m. UTC on November 12, for example, practically every put (sell) instrument becomes worthless. If Bitcoin is selling over $58,000 or $62,000, a right to sell it at such prices is worthless.
Above $70,000, bulls may strive for a $410 million profit.
The four most probable possibilities for the Nov. 12 expiration are listed below. The possible profit is represented by the imbalance favoring either side. In other words, the active number of call (buy) and put (sell) contracts vary based on the expiration price:
2,440 calls vs. 310 puts between $64,000 and $66,000. The overall outcome favors the call (bull) instruments by $135 million.
3,430 calls vs. 50 puts between $66,000 and $68,000. The overall outcome favors the call (bull) instruments by $225 million.
44,070 calls vs. 10 puts between $68,000 and $70,000. The overall outcome favors the call (bull) instruments by $305 million.
Over $70,000, there are 5,820 calls and 0 puts. Bulls profited $410 million as a consequence of their full domination.
Call options are employed entirely in bullish wagers, whereas put options are used in neutral-to-bearish transactions, according to this rough estimate. More intricate investing methods are ignored in this oversimplification.
A trader, for example, may have sold a put option to get positive exposure to Bitcoin above a certain price. Regrettably, there is no simple method to calculate this impact.
The Bears’ highest aspirations failed to materialize.
Bulls win the weekly expiry on Nov. 12 after a 19 percent surge in 30 days. The lack of an unfavorable pricing effect after the $1 trillion United States infrastructure plan passed the United States House of Representatives might have played a role in this shift. All digital asset transactions worth more than $10,000 must be disclosed to the IRS, according to the measure.
Traders must keep in mind that during bull runs, even unfavorable news has little to no effect on the market. Furthermore, the effort required by bears to exert price pressure is increased, and it is typically futile.
Bulls might take advantage of the present position by pushing BTC beyond $70,000, netting them an extra $105 million profit, bringing their total to $410 million.
The author’s thoughts and opinions are purely his or her own and do not necessarily represent those of Cointelegraph. Every investing and trading decision has some level of risk. When making a choice, you should do your own research.